推荐回答(4个)
最近A股一再走出了和外围股市相反的行情,具体表现为外围股市大跌,A股只是跟随下跌,但上涨家数却大于下跌家数,外围股市跌幅趋缓A股则出现报复性反弹,而A股的调整则采取暴风骤雨般的集中调整,表现则为突然有几天不理会外围股市的涨跌,就象在2月24日到27日的调整,当时反而是外围股市开始盘整了,A股便以迅雷不及掩耳之势进行调整,很多股票这几天的跌幅都在30%以上,让投资者根本没有一点出逃的机会,跌出空间后然后又开始报复性的上拉,这就是纯资金推动型市场的特征,来时快如闪电强势到逼死空头,去时快如风弱势到逼死多头,于是投资者便在这种不断的逼空和杀多中摇摆,反向操作比比皆是,上涨时追涨买入——轻仓,下跌时杀跌卖出——满仓,而股市正是在这种不断的追涨杀跌中实现财富的转移,如今由下跌趋势过度到盘整趋势刚刚明朗,主力又开始这种迫不及待的压空拉升,这正是目前我所担心的事情!
大盘通过近几天的回调浮动筹码已经得到了很大清洗,这从昨天的下跌,但个股已经开始活跃可以看出,如果大盘近期采取的是小阴小阳的调整效果可能会更好些,这说明主力志向高远,尤其是在外围股市连续的大跌能够将筹码稳固在2000点附近,等到外围股市开始出现平稳(不期望反弹,但至少是盘整)时选择拉升,则后市大盘的潜力非常大,可以说2400不是本轮反弹的高点,但在目前形势并不明朗的情况下选择大幅拉升则反映了机构对后市行情的忧虑,资金选择的是尽快拉高出货,这也正是我所担心的,如果这样强行上拉,我担心大盘的表现就象一个弹起来的乒乓球,弹跳力逐渐减弱,每次的高点逐渐偏低直到最后无力再弹,而这种突然拉升必然对应将来某个时刻突然的暴跌,因为全球股市的形势并没有明朗,经过上次大跌教训后必然导致更多的筹码时刻处于浮动、紧张的状态,可以预料的是每往上涨一步,付出的成交量将要比上一次反弹付出的成交量更大,直到资金的极限,如果是这样的话,行情可能会面临反弹终止,现在的反弹只是超跌之后的逐级退出,这也正是我所担忧的地方!
无论是反弹继续也好,终止前的反弹也好,大盘回踩30日线(2135点)和跳空缺口(2180点)做确认的要求都非常大,如果大盘继续逼空上涨在前期我所说的2150-2180建仓的投资者可以暂时选择卖出观望,因为强行拉升的行情到了某个阶段必然会有突然暴跌的过程,前面和投资者多次强调大部分主力是在2100点以下才建仓的,而大盘在上涨和下跌都会带有情绪过头的非理性,所以在越接近2000点的位置建仓是越安全的,因为这个位置是政策鼓励和资金支撑的底线,而如果在大盘逼空上涨点位在2150点以上建仓则很难具有安全边际,因为大盘极有可能是回抽2180点对缺口的突破做确认,所以在追涨和介入时一定要保持谨慎!
今日的大涨可以归结为受到两会总体的利好预期,机构资金总体呈现净流入198亿元,成交量明显放大。
前两日连续的暴跌伴随着今日的暴涨,在急跌的情况下往往会出现很多的超卖,错杀等等情况,面对短期的急跌必伴随补涨,超跌反弹,自救等行情的出现,加上两会的总体利好预期才出现了今日的大涨。
今日受全国用电量增加利好影响,机构果断出手进场,是机构的作为。说明市场热点切换成功,后市可期待。
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